Genius Rate Outlook
Where mortgage rates are headed — and whether to lock.
A daily model that reads Treasuries, MBS, Fed communications, economic data, auctions and market commentary, then tells you how confident it is.
30-yr fixed conforming
6.316%
-1.1 bps vs prior day
Daily average through Tue, Oct 20
Next-day outlook
Lean float
Daily rate & forecast
History through yesterday · dashed line = forecast median · shaded = 10–90% range
Forecast ranges and 1-year history are part of Genius Pro.
Is it safe to wait?
Lock-or-float guidance by horizon, with the model's confidence (0–100).
Next day
Lean floatLower
37% chance rates are higher by Wed, Oct 21
Slight edge to waiting, but confidence is limited.
3 days
Safe to waitLower
26% chance rates are higher by Fri, Oct 23
Model expects stable-to-lower rates over this window with good confidence.
5 days
30 days
What's moving rates
Sample outlook: rates drifting modestly lower as Treasury yields ease; event risk rises into next week's data. Connect the forecast service to replace this with live model output.
See each signal's contribution in basis points — Treasuries, MBS spreads, Fed tone, data surprises and expert sentiment.
Go ProMarket calendar
- Med
Initial jobless claims
Wed, Oct 21 · 8:30 ET
- Med
10-yr Treasury note auction
Thu, Oct 22 · 13:00 ET
- Med
ADP employment report
Fri, Oct 23 · 8:15 ET
- High
Employment situation (jobs report)
Tue, Oct 27 · 8:30 ET
- High
Consumer price index
Fri, Oct 30 · 8:30 ET
Headlines & commentary
Fed, Treasury, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, market news and expert commentary, scored for rate impact.
Headlines appear here once the forecast service is connected.
Track record
Walk-forward backtest (live record builds daily).
| Horizon | Direction | Avg error |
|---|---|---|
| Next day | 61% | 3.1 bps |
| 3 days | 58% | 5.4 bps |
| 5 days | 56% | 7.2 bps |
| 30 days | 54% | 16.8 bps |
Model sample-0. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.
Genius Pro
5-day and 30-day forecasts, basis-point ranges, drivers and SMS lock alerts.
Rate Outlook forecasts are statistical estimates generated from market data, economic releases, official communications and news. They are not rate quotes, offers to lend, or financial advice, and actual rates available to you depend on your loan scenario. Confidence scores reflect historical model accuracy and current uncertainty; they are not guarantees.