Every business day we publish a forecast for where mortgage rates are likely to be in 1, 3, 5 and 30 days. Here is how to read it.
The daily rate
The headline number is the average rate for a well-qualified borrower on that product, through yesterday's close. Your own rate will differ based on credit score, down payment, loan amount, property type and points.
Forecast in basis points
A basis point (bp) is 0.01%. A forecast of −6 bps over five days means the model expects the average rate to be about 0.06% lower. Pro members also see a 10–90% range: in 8 out of 10 similar historical situations, the actual move landed inside that band.
The confidence score (0–100)
Confidence combines three things:
- How accurate the model has been at that horizon in walk-forward testing.
- How wide today's range is compared with normal volatility — a narrow range means more certainty.
- Event risk — a jobs report, CPI release or Fed meeting inside the window lowers confidence, because those events can move rates 10–20 bps in minutes.
A score above 75 is high. Below 35 means "the model doesn't have a strong read — plan for either direction."
Lock or float?
For each horizon we answer one question: is it safe to wait that long?
- Lock — the risk of higher rates outweighs the potential gain.
- Lean lock — modest upside risk; locking is the conservative choice.
- Lean float — slight edge to waiting, but confidence is limited.
- Safe to wait — the model expects stable-to-lower rates with good confidence.
How to use it
If you're closing within 15 days, a lock protects you from surprises; the forecast helps you choose which day to lock. If you're 30–60 days out, the 30-day view helps decide whether to lock long now or wait. Either way, talk to your loan officer — lock periods, extension costs and float-down options matter as much as the forecast.
Forecasts are statistical estimates, not rate quotes or guarantees.